US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 10.0¢
- Implied chance
- 10.0%
- Return if right
- 900.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $52.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- ‘The Secret Agent’ Star Maria Fernanda Cândido to Lead ‘Lost Objects’ by Brazilian Director Luiz Fernando Carvalho (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 4h ago
- Aluminum Extends Rally After Brazilian Plant Cuts Output to 50%Bloomberg · 12h ago
- Brazilian player falls down tunnel during goal celebrationBBC Sport · 1d ago
- Brazilian player falls into tunnel celebrating goalAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Brazilian top-flight club wear name of English fan with MND on shirtsBBC Sport · 2d ago
- ‘The Blue Trail’ Director Gabriel Mascaro and Top Brazilian Producer Paula Cosenza Launch Trema, Set First Slate (EXCLUSIVE)Variety · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “US expels a Brazilian diplomat by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.