U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.6¢
- Implied chance
- 5.6%
- Return if right
- 1685.7%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 1785.7 shares at 5.6¢ each.
YES wins: $1785.71 back, a profit of $1685.71. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $412.09 of that profit. Without it you would make $2097.80.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.5¢
- Implied chance
- 96.5%
- Return if right
- 3.6%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 103.6 shares at 96.5¢ each.
NO wins: $103.63 back, a profit of $3.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.