US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?$26k liquidity$159k volumecloses 1.7mo
IranqatarPeace DealGeopoliticsMiddle EastU.S. x Iran
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Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
2.1¢
Implied chance
2.1%
Return if right
4661.9%
Spread cost
2%

If you put in $100

You get 4761.9 shares at 2.1¢ each.

YES wins: $4761.90 back, a profit of $4661.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $116.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $4778.05.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Buy NO on Polymarket

BUY NO

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We keep it in one place with the price you saw, and email you when it settles or moves sharply. It is free, and the screener stays open to everyone either way.

Cost
98.0¢
Implied chance
98.0%
Return if right
2.0%
Spread cost
2%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.09.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%2%Jul 10Aug 10

Latest: Aug 10, 07:27 PM

Latest news

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No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.

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