US announces military base in Israel in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 22.0¢
- Implied chance
- 22.0%
- Return if right
- 354.5%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 454.5 shares at 22.0¢ each.
YES wins: $454.55 back, a profit of $354.55. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $365.12.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $27.39.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Benjamin Netanyahu attacks Israel’s enemies and allies in UN speechAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- 'Don't put pressure on us' over Israel games - Republic of Ireland's OgbeneBBC Sport · 4h ago
- Netanyahu, Addressing U.N., Denounces Israel’s Critics as ‘Moral Cowards’The New York Times · 5h ago
- Israel moves to ban main Palestinian-led lists from electionAl Jazeera · 6h ago
- Netanyahu defends Israel in U.N. speech after several diplomats walk outCBS News · 7h ago
- Israel’s policies threaten ‘very existence’ of Palestinians, Abbas tells UNAl Jazeera · 7h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “US announces military base in Israel in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.