Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.1¢
- Implied chance
- 2.1%
- Return if right
- 4661.9%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 4761.9 shares at 2.1¢ each.
YES wins: $4761.90 back, a profit of $4661.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1120.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $5782.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.7¢
- Implied chance
- 98.7%
- Return if right
- 1.3%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 101.3 shares at 98.7¢ each.
NO wins: $101.32 back, a profit of $1.32. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Gold Edges Up as Traders Weigh Russia-Ukraine ‘Energy Ceasefire’Bloomberg · 34m ago
- Trump announces Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, Russia later strikes UkraineCBS News · 1h ago
- Trump claims Russia and Ukraine agree to energy ceasefireNBC News · 2h ago
- Trump bears down on Zelensky as Russia keeps up attacks on UkraineAxios · 6h ago
- Backlash grows against Russia diesel deal as Trump claims Ukraine energy ceasefireThe Hill · 6h ago
- Zelensky 'awaiting details' from US on Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire claimed by TrumpThe Hill · 7h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.