Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.3¢
- Implied chance
- 3.3%
- Return if right
- 2930.3%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 3030.3 shares at 3.3¢ each.
YES wins: $3030.30 back, a profit of $2930.30. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $94.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $3025.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.9¢
- Implied chance
- 96.9%
- Return if right
- 3.2%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 103.2 shares at 96.9¢ each.
NO wins: $103.20 back, a profit of $3.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.31.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine drone strike on Russian oil-refining city kills 12 peopleFrance 24 · 13h ago
- Ukraine: Russian bombs injure five civilians in Sumy, authorities sayFrance 24 · 16h ago
- Russian forces kill several in Ukraine, launch ‘brutal’ attack in OdesaAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Russian family denied asylum in Finland fear reprisals for pro-Ukraine activismThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Ukraine braces for winter power crisis after Russian strikes, Zelensky saysFrance 24 · 2d ago
- Russian attacks kill several in UkraineFrance 24 · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement. An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia. The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.