Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.3¢
- Implied chance
- 3.3%
- Return if right
- 2930.3%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 3030.3 shares at 3.3¢ each.
YES wins: $3030.30 back, a profit of $2930.30. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $606.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $3536.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.8¢
- Implied chance
- 97.8%
- Return if right
- 2.2%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 102.2 shares at 97.8¢ each.
NO wins: $102.25 back, a profit of $2.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Robots make combat airdrops, clear mines as Ukraine defeats Russian pincerArs Technica · 2h ago
- Ukraine school is teaching kids how to fly dronesCBS News · 5h ago
- EU to condemn war in Ukraine at G20 even if Putin attendsDeutsche Welle · 7h ago
- Russia attacks Ukraine while Zelenskyy speaks at UNGAAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Ukraine: Zelensky says Putin 'patient zero' for spreading warFrance 24 · 10h ago
- Russian attacks kill eight people across Ukraine as US steps up diplomacyAl Jazeera · 10h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.