Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.6¢
- Implied chance
- 1.6%
- Return if right
- 6150.0%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 6250.0 shares at 1.6¢ each.
YES wins: $6250.00 back, a profit of $6150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1157.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $7307.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.37.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary voteAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 7h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on Russian oil-refining city kills 12 peopleFrance 24 · 9h ago
- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- Ukraine: Russian bombs injure five civilians in Sumy, authorities sayFrance 24 · 13h ago
- Ukraine Drone Attack on Industrial City in Russia Kills at Least 13The New York Times · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.