UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

Q: UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)

Prediction markets currently price this at 72%. A YES share costs 72.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 38.9% over 23h.

UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)$43k liquidity$23k volumecloses 23h

SportsUFCGamesUFC 330

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 72.0¢
Implied chance: 72.0%
Return if right: 38.9%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.

YES wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $39.86.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 29.0¢
Implied chance: 29.0%
Return if right: 244.8%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 344.8 shares at 29.0¢ each.

NO wins: $344.83 back, a profit of $244.83. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $250.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 15, 04:00 AM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Lucas Fernando" if Lucas Fernando is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafael Tobias" if Rafael Tobias is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Source: https://www.ufc.com/events