UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.5¢
- Implied chance
- 4.5%
- Return if right
- 2122.2%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 2222.2 shares at 4.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2222.22 back, a profit of $2122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $76.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $2198.85.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.8¢
- Implied chance
- 95.8%
- Return if right
- 4.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 104.4 shares at 95.8¢ each.
NO wins: $104.38 back, a profit of $4.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iran-aligned Houthis claim they attacked oil refinery in Saudi ArabiaThe Guardian · 1d ago
- Yemen's Houthis claim attack on Aramco oil facility in Saudi Arabia, and other Middle East newsNPR · 1d ago
- Saudi Arabia says fire extinguished at Aramco facility in JizanAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Turkey says Iran not target of pact with Saudi Arabia, PakistanThe Hill · 2d ago
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey sign defense pact as Iran repeats that Hormuz deal is closeCBS News · 2d ago
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey sign defense deal, raising some alarm in the Middle EastCBS News · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.