Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 16.0¢
- Implied chance
- 16.0%
- Return if right
- 525.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.
YES wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $41.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
NO wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $17.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Flock Safety cameras need constitutional guardrails before further deployment, Tennessee mayor arguesFox News · 18h ago
- Are Trump's new executive orders targeting birthright citizenship constitutional?CBS News · 4d ago
- Missouri voters block GOP-led effort to raise bar to pass constitutional amendmentsNBC News · 6d ago
- Maryland House approves constitutional amendment clarifying redistricting rulesThe Hill · 6d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held. If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.