Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.0¢
- Implied chance
- 6.0%
- Return if right
- 1566.7%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 1666.7 shares at 6.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1666.67 back, a profit of $1566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $416.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $1983.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.4¢
- Implied chance
- 96.4%
- Return if right
- 3.7%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 103.7 shares at 96.4¢ each.
NO wins: $103.73 back, a profit of $3.73. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Trump says no Iran talks planned, insists Strait of Hormuz remains openFrance 24 · 1h ago
- Trump says Strait of Hormuz is "open and operating." Shipping data appears to contradict his claim.CBS News · 7h ago
- How Gulf Oil Is Escaping the Strait of HormuzYahoo Finance · 9h ago
- Trump says no Iran talks are planned or ongoing and claims the Strait of Hormuz is openCBS News · 9h ago
- Trump posts map labeling Strait of Hormuz as US territoryThe Hill · 10h ago
- Ship attacked while exiting Strait of HormuzThe Hill · 11h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by Decem…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration publicly announces that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.