Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.8¢
- Implied chance
- 4.8%
- Return if right
- 1983.3%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 2083.3 shares at 4.8¢ each.
YES wins: $2083.33 back, a profit of $1983.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $138.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $2122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.8¢
- Implied chance
- 95.8%
- Return if right
- 4.4%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 104.4 shares at 95.8¢ each.
NO wins: $104.38 back, a profit of $4.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Oil Flows Are Up, but Iran Is Still Menacing the Strait of HormuzThe New York Times · 2d ago
- Getting Oil and Gas Through Hormuz Strait Is Dangerous Job for Ship CaptainsBloomberg · 2d ago
- Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levelsThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Where things stand with gas prices and the Strait of HormuzCBS News · 3d ago
- Is Iran losing its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz?Al Jazeera · 3d ago
- Iran says it expects US response Tuesday on plan to reopen Strait of HormuzFrance 24 · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by Decem…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or the Trump administration publicly announces that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.