Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.7¢
- Implied chance
- 2.7%
- Return if right
- 3603.7%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 3703.7 shares at 2.7¢ each.
YES wins: $3703.70 back, a profit of $3603.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $644.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $4247.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.1¢
- Implied chance
- 98.1%
- Return if right
- 1.9%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 101.9 shares at 98.1¢ each.
NO wins: $101.94 back, a profit of $1.94. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.42 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Rep. John Moolenaar says U.S. has "responsibility to help Taiwan defend itself" before Xi visitCBS News · 5h ago
- Rubio: Taiwan arms sales constrained by US needs, industrial baseThe Hill · 11h ago
- From cybersecurity to AI to Taiwan, what's at stake in Trump's summit with XiNPR · 11h ago
- McConnell leads 4 GOP senators in calling for Trump to release Taiwan arms fundingThe Hill · 13h ago
- Trump-Xi meeting comes amid tensions on Iran, Taiwan and trade: What to knowABC News · 18h ago
- Trump needs to be bold, direct with Xi over Taiwan disputeThe Hill · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin a state visit to the United States around September 24, 2026, where he will be received by Donald Trump at the White House. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly endorses the People's Republic of China's claim of sovereignty over Taiwan by the end of this summit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, Trump must make an explicit public statement affirming that Taiwan is part of China, that China has sovereignty over Taiwan, or that the United States supports China's claim to Taiwan. Restating the long-standing United States "One China policy", acknowledging that China holds such a position, noting that the United States does not support Taiwanese independence, or declining to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan will not qualify, as none of these constitutes an endorsement of China's claim. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. A statement issued jointly by the United States and China will qualify if Trump personally endorses it. The summit will be considered to have ended at the end of the calendar day (ET) on which Xi Jinping physically departs from United States territory. No meetings, events, or statements which occur after this time will be considered. If Xi Jinping does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.