Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 26.0¢
- Implied chance
- 26.0%
- Return if right
- 284.6%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 384.6 shares at 26.0¢ each.
YES wins: $384.62 back, a profit of $284.62. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $292.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 75.0¢
- Implied chance
- 75.0%
- Return if right
- 33.3%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.
NO wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $34.23.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- U.S.-Canada trade talks collapse, massive tariffs to take effectAxios · 38m ago
- Canada says it will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' as trade talks break downBBC News · 42m ago
- US, Canada fail to reach trade pact to avert Trump tariffsFrance 24 · 59m ago
- Carney says Canada will match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar' after failed trade negotiationsFrance 24 · 59m ago
- Canada vows to match Trump’s 50% tariffs after trade deal talks failThe Guardian · 1h ago
- U.S. set to impose 50% tariffs on Canada after failed talks; Canada to match themCBS News · 1h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation. A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.