Will the Tidö parties win by 3–4 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

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• ‘I have nothing in the UK at all’: British man torn from his Swedish wife and homeThe Guardian · 4d ago
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• Swedish PM Kristersson resigns after election lossBBC News · 7d ago
• Swedish Bank Shares Gain as Close Vote Eases Tax ConcernsBloomberg · 10d ago

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L). For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C). Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement. If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).