Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.6¢
- Implied chance
- 3.6%
- Return if right
- 2677.8%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2777.8 shares at 3.6¢ each.
YES wins: $2777.78 back, a profit of $2677.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $39.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $2716.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.5¢
- Implied chance
- 96.5%
- Return if right
- 3.6%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 103.6 shares at 96.5¢ each.
NO wins: $103.63 back, a profit of $3.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 11, 10:24 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Trump claims control of Strait of Hormuz as stalemate deepensCBS News · 3h ago
- Trump demands compensation from Iran as talks on Strait of Hormuz continueAl Jazeera · 8h ago
- Iran’s steep demands for US over Strait of Hormuz threaten to derail reopeningThe Hill · 10h ago
- Iran war live: Trump claims Hormuz Strait open, seeks Iranian compensationAl Jazeera · 10h ago
- Breaking down Iran's new set of demands over the Strait of HormuzCBS News · 18h ago
- Strait of Hormuz access remains uncertain as Trump says the U.S. is "semi-negotiating" with IranCBS News · 18h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.