SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?

Q: SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 20%. A YES share costs 20.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 400.0% over 1.2mo.

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?$875 liquidity$5k volumecloses 1.2mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 20.0¢
Implied chance: 20.0%
Return if right: 400.0%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.

YES wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $412.82.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 81.0¢
Implied chance: 81.0%
Return if right: 23.5%
Spread cost: 3%

If you put in $100

You get 123.5 shares at 81.0¢ each.

NO wins: $123.46 back, a profit of $23.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $24.22.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 04:24 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.