South Dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 71%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
YES wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 4.0¢
- Implied chance
- 4.0%
- Return if right
- 2400.0%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.
NO wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1755.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $4155.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Nature: Lake Poinsett in South DakotaCBS News · 8d ago
- Nature: Lake Poinsett in South DakotaCBS News · 8d ago
- South Dakota GOP election official backs Democrat to succeed herThe Hill · 12d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “South Dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
South Dakota Constitutional Amendment J is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in South Dakota in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the South Dakota Constitution to disqualify individuals who are not citizens of the United States from voting in any election in South Dakota. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the South Dakota statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of South Dakota, including the South Dakota Secretary of State (https://sdsos.gov/).