Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.0¢
- Implied chance
- 6.0%
- Return if right
- 1566.7%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 1666.7 shares at 6.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1666.67 back, a profit of $1566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.26.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness buying options after collapseYahoo Finance · 24d ago
- UVA’s Situational Awareness Bet Fueled Record Year Before TumultBloomberg · 1mo ago
- This Was Situational Awareness's Top 5 Holdings at the End of Q2. They're All on Sale NowYahoo Finance · 1mo ago
- SEC Looks Into Trading at Situational AwarenessBloomberg · 1mo ago
- SEC subpoenas banks over Situational Awareness hedge fund collapseYahoo Finance · 1mo ago
- Situational Awareness, star AI hedge fund that nearly imploded, now being probed by the SECTechCrunch · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness or Situational Awareness LP announces, or a consensus of credible reporting confirms, that it has received new outside investor capital by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Capital from existing investors and capital from new investors will both qualify. Capital contributed by Situational Awareness, its principals, or its employees will not qualify. Only capital actually contributed will qualify. Announcements of plans to raise, soft commitments, and signed subscriptions not yet funded will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, and a consensus of credible reporting.