SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.5¢
- Implied chance
- 4.5%
- Return if right
- 2122.2%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 2222.2 shares at 4.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2222.22 back, a profit of $2122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $341.88 of that profit. Without it you would make $2464.10.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.7¢
- Implied chance
- 96.7%
- Return if right
- 3.4%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 103.4 shares at 96.7¢ each.
NO wins: $103.41 back, a profit of $3.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by Dece…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” in Trump v. Barbara (https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25-365_4hdj.pdf) on June 30, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States grants a petition by the executive branch of the United States for a rehearing in that case by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ruling to allow briefing on whether the Court should rehear the case will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”, nor will an amendment or correction to the Court's opinion that does not constitute a formal grant of rehearing. If a Supreme Court ruling on this case denies a petition to rehear the case, or if no such petition is filed by the applicable deadlines, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.