SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 57.0¢
- Implied chance
- 57.0%
- Return if right
- 75.4%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 175.4 shares at 57.0¢ each.
YES wins: $175.44 back, a profit of $75.44. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $22.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 56.0¢
- Implied chance
- 56.0%
- Return if right
- 78.6%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 178.6 shares at 56.0¢ each.
NO wins: $178.57 back, a profit of $78.57. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $23.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.