SBF released from custody in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.6¢
- Implied chance
- 4.6%
- Return if right
- 2073.9%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 2173.9 shares at 4.6¢ each.
YES wins: $2173.91 back, a profit of $2073.91. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $98.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $2172.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.8¢
- Implied chance
- 95.8%
- Return if right
- 4.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 104.4 shares at 95.8¢ each.
NO wins: $104.38 back, a profit of $4.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “SBF released from custody in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.