Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.0¢
- Implied chance
- 4.0%
- Return if right
- 2400.0%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $316.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $2716.90.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.9¢
- Implied chance
- 96.9%
- Return if right
- 3.2%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 103.2 shares at 96.9¢ each.
NO wins: $103.20 back, a profit of $3.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.68.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Dems grapple with how to pace the AI raceAxios · 11h ago
- Businesses are growing at the fastest pace in over four years. Why war and inflation aren’t stopping the U.S. economy.MarketWatch · 11h ago
- Sam Altman's OpenAI Is in Talks for a New Funding Round Valuing It at $1.2 Trillion Instead of an IPO. Here's Why He Called Going Public Now "Ill-Advised."Yahoo Finance · 20h ago
- Wall Street’s Nasdaq hits all-time high as AI frenzy gathers paceAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Oil Traders Bet on Price Drop at Record Pace as Disruptions EaseBloomberg · 1d ago
- U.S. M2 Money Supply Recently Grew at the Fastest Pace Seen in 3 Years. It Could Be an Ominous Sign With Inflation at 3.4%.Yahoo Finance · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by Septem…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.