Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
YES wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 12.0¢
- Implied chance
- 12.0%
- Return if right
- 733.3%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.
NO wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $75.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $809.09.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Alabama holds second primary Tuesday, leading to confusion, concerns about low turnoutNPR · 2d ago
- Voter turnout surges in Tennessee after Black-majority district is erasedThe Washington Post · 5d ago
- Michigan sees record midterm primary turnoutCBS News · 8d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Turnout Up or Down?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 60.3%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 60.3%. If the reported turnout is exactly 60.3%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Statistisches Landesamt Sachsen-Anhalt (https://statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/themen/gebiet-und-wahlen/wahlen) and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).