Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 46.0¢
- Implied chance
- 46.0%
- Return if right
- 117.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 217.4 shares at 46.0¢ each.
YES wins: $217.39 back, a profit of $117.39. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 56.0¢
- Implied chance
- 56.0%
- Return if right
- 78.6%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 178.6 shares at 56.0¢ each.
NO wins: $178.57 back, a profit of $78.57. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $81.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).