Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 14.0¢
- Implied chance
- 14.0%
- Return if right
- 614.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.
YES wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $640.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 87.0¢
- Implied chance
- 87.0%
- Return if right
- 14.9%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 114.9 shares at 87.0¢ each.
NO wins: $114.94 back, a profit of $14.94. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia bars only party opposing war in Ukraine from parliamentary voteAl Jazeera · 3h ago
- Ukraine drone strike on oil refinery deep inside Russia kills at least 13The Guardian · 7h ago
- ‘Long-range sanctions’: Ukraine hopes strikes cause Russia fear and lossesAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- Ukraine Drone Attack on Industrial City in Russia Kills at Least 13The New York Times · 13h ago
- Ukraine confirms strikes on oil refinery in Russia’s Tatarstan – as it happenedThe Guardian · 14h ago
- Russia and Ukraine exchange deadly overnight strikesFrance 24 · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.