Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 78.0¢
- Implied chance
- 78.0%
- Return if right
- 28.2%
- Spread cost
- 43%
If you put in $100
You get 128.2 shares at 78.0¢ each.
YES wins: $128.21 back, a profit of $28.21. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $21.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $49.25.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 44.0¢
- Implied chance
- 44.0%
- Return if right
- 127.3%
- Spread cost
- 37%
If you put in $100
You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.
NO wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $75.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $203.03.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 19, 08:33 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine's former defense minister demands elections: "Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia"CBS News · 8h ago
- Ukraine's fired defense minister calls for elections despite war with RussiaCBS News · 15h ago
- Ukraine launches nearly 800 drones into Russia, targets MoscowCBS News · 21h ago
- Ukraine targets Moscow with drones as Russia threatens U.K. over supportCBS News · 1d ago
- Why is Russia threatening UK with ‘consequences’ over Ukraine drones?Al Jazeera · 1d ago
- Ukraine appeals to FIA to overturn Russia inclusionBBC Sport · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.