Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 25.0¢
- Implied chance
- 25.0%
- Return if right
- 300.0%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 400.0 shares at 25.0¢ each.
YES wins: $400.00 back, a profit of $300.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $308.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 76.0¢
- Implied chance
- 76.0%
- Return if right
- 31.6%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 131.6 shares at 76.0¢ each.
NO wins: $131.58 back, a profit of $31.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $32.45.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Meetings or talks limited to humanitarian issues will not qualify unless they also include substantive negotiation regarding broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.