Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
YES wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.87.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 25.0¢
- Implied chance
- 25.0%
- Return if right
- 300.0%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 400.0 shares at 25.0¢ each.
NO wins: $400.00 back, a profit of $300.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $34.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $334.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine ‘offering Russia deal to halt attacks on civilian ships in Black Sea’The Guardian · 7d ago
- In Odesa, no-one is safe from Russia's new Black Sea strikesBBC News · 14d ago
- Russia says civilians killed in strike on Black Sea resortDeutsche Welle · 17d ago
- Ukrainian drone attacks on Black Sea resort and Crimea kill 11, Russia claimsThe Guardian · 17d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 28,…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Black Sea attributed to Russia between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a vessel anywhere in the Black Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level. Strikes attributed to Russia by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Russia publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed. Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the vessel will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.