Russia coup attempt by December 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 23.0¢
- Implied chance
- 23.0%
- Return if right
- 334.8%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.
YES wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $19.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $354.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $28.21.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- The WHO seeks more details on the death of a plague research lab employee in RussiaNPR · 23m ago
- UN health agency wants more details from Russia on suspected pneumonic plague caseFrance 24 · 52m ago
- WHO says it does not have ‘full picture’ from Russia following suspected plague deathThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Trump backs away from top aides who reportedly advised pro-Russia governmentThe Guardian · 2h ago
- Trump's midterm strategists draw scrutiny over Russia-aligned workAxios · 2h ago
- Fears of a Plague Outbreak in Russia: What to KnowThe New York Times · 3h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Russia coup attempt by December 31, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.