Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.5¢
- Implied chance
- 0.5%
- Return if right
- 19900.0%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 20000.0 shares at 0.5¢ each.
YES wins: $20000.00 back, a profit of $19900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $33233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 67%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.20 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.30.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 26, 08:17 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Watch live: Trump rallies Texas Republicans amid midterm warning signsThe Hill · 4h ago
- US Republicans, independents express low trust in election integrity: PollAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- Trump returns to Texas, where Republicans are strugglingThe Washington Post · 5h ago
- Trump says he thinks he's "helping the Republican Party with the rallies" ahead of midtermsCBS News · 5h ago
- House Republican defends GOP ahead of midterms: 'We did our job'The Hill · 6h ago
- Fetterman more popular with Pennsylvania Republicans than Democrats: PollThe Hill · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Republicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulle…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model