Plague pandemic in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.5¢
- Implied chance
- 4.5%
- Return if right
- 2122.2%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 2222.2 shares at 4.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2222.22 back, a profit of $2122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $24.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $2147.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.6¢
- Implied chance
- 95.6%
- Return if right
- 4.6%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 104.6 shares at 95.6¢ each.
NO wins: $104.60 back, a profit of $4.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- WHO questions Russia: "If plague is ruled out, what did she actually die from?"CBS News · 21m ago
- What to Know About Suspected Plague Case in SiberiaBloomberg · 2h ago
- The WHO seeks more details on the death of a plague research lab employee in RussiaNPR · 2h ago
- UN health agency wants more details from Russia on suspected pneumonic plague caseFrance 24 · 3h ago
- What is the pneumonic plague?NPR · 3h ago
- WHO says it does not have ‘full picture’ from Russia following suspected plague deathThe Guardian · 3h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Plague pandemic in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.