OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 17.0¢
- Implied chance
- 17.0%
- Return if right
- 488.2%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.
YES wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $525.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 85.0¢
- Implied chance
- 85.0%
- Return if right
- 17.6%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.
NO wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.05.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Gwyneth Paltrow Pokes Fun at That Viral Dinner Party Invite for OpenAI’s Sam AltmanThe Hollywood Reporter · 1d ago
- OpenAI is gaining on Anthropic with business users, new data indicatesTechCrunch · 1d ago
- Forget the Usual AI Suspects. This Stock Could Be a Massive Winner as the Latest OpenAI Partner.Yahoo Finance · 2d ago
- It’s Greg Brockman’s OpenAI nowThe Verge · 2d ago
- OpenAI Is Burning $12.3 Billion a Quarter and the Rival It Created Just Passed ItYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar says IPO is coming in 2027Yahoo Finance · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If OpenAI's valuation is equal to Meta's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.