OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.8¢
- Implied chance
- 3.8%
- Return if right
- 2531.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 2631.6 shares at 3.8¢ each.
YES wins: $2631.58 back, a profit of $2531.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $309.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $2841.18.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI Says a Secret AI Model Cracked Hundreds of Open Math Problems in One Prompt—Mathematicians Want ReceiptsDecrypt · 31m ago
- OpenAI says teen ChatGPT use limited but research finds it an 'unacceptable risk'BBC Business · 2h ago
- Anthropic, OpenAI Clouding Other IPO Prospects: RuderBloomberg · 6h ago
- OpenAI’s Alexander Embiricos is coming to TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 — days after the launch of DotsTechCrunch · 8h ago
- OpenAI releases new batch of math breakthroughsThe Hill · 8h ago
- "Not safe for kids": Advocacy group urges OpenAI to keep teens off ChatGPTAxios · 13h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange. OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD. Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange. If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed. If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.