Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
BUY YES
- Cost
- 96.8¢
- Implied chance
- 96.8%
- Return if right
- 3.3%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 103.3 shares at 96.8¢ each.
YES wins: $103.31 back, a profit of $3.31. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 5.1¢
- Implied chance
- 5.1%
- Return if right
- 1860.8%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 1960.8 shares at 5.1¢ each.
NO wins: $1960.78 back, a profit of $1860.78. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $448.85 of that profit. Without it you would make $2309.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. 1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame. The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources. 2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame. Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.