Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
BUY YES
- Cost
- 81.0¢
- Implied chance
- 81.0%
- Return if right
- 23.5%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 123.5 shares at 81.0¢ each.
YES wins: $123.46 back, a profit of $23.46. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $25.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 21.0¢
- Implied chance
- 21.0%
- Return if right
- 376.2%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 476.2 shares at 21.0¢ each.
NO wins: $476.19 back, a profit of $376.19. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $23.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $400.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Nothing Ever Happens: 2026”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf