North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 87.0¢
- Implied chance
- 87.0%
- Return if right
- 14.9%
- Spread cost
- 66%
If you put in $100
You get 114.9 shares at 87.0¢ each.
YES wins: $114.94 back, a profit of $14.94. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $28.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $43.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 48.0¢
- Implied chance
- 48.0%
- Return if right
- 108.3%
- Spread cost
- 52%
If you put in $100
You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.
NO wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $119.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $227.87.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- North Korea fires ballistic missile towards the sea, South Korea saysAl Jazeera · 22h ago
- South Korea’s military says North Korea fired projectile toward its eastern watersABC News · 1d ago
- South Korea calls for apology from North Korea after mine injures three soldiersThe Guardian · 4d ago
- South Korea’s leader is seeking a new approach to North Korea.The New York Times · 11d ago
- South Korea says US-North Korea talks possible, rules out Hormuz deploymentAl Jazeera · 16d ago
- U.S., South Korea and Japan to hold drill as North Korea ramps up pressure on U.S.NPR · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “North Korea x South Korea diplomatic meeting by December 31,…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between North Korea and South Korea by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of North Korea and South Korea and a consensus of credible reporting.