Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 51.0¢
- Implied chance
- 51.0%
- Return if right
- 96.1%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.
YES wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 52.0¢
- Implied chance
- 52.0%
- Return if right
- 92.3%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 192.3 shares at 52.0¢ each.
NO wins: $192.31 back, a profit of $92.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Nobel Peace Prize 2026 awarded to an individual?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is scheduled to be announced on October 9, 2026, at 11:00 AM CEST (5:00 AM ET). This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one named individual is a laureate of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A named individual is a person identified by name as a laureate in the Norwegian Nobel Committee's announcement. An organization, institution, movement, agency, coalition, or other entity is not a named individual. The prize may be divided among up to three laureates. If it is divided between at least one named individual and one or more entities, this market will resolve to "Yes". A person named as a laureate alongside an organization they lead counts as a named individual, as Kofi Annan did when the 2001 prize was divided between the United Nations and its Secretary-General. A person who is not named as a laureate, and who only accepts or represents the prize on an organization's behalf, does not count. A laureate who declines the prize still counts, as Le Duc Tho did in 1973. A laureate honored posthumously still counts, as Dag Hammarskjold did in 1961. If the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is withheld, is not awarded, is reserved for a later year, or has otherwise not been announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, published at https://www.nobelprize.org/; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: https://www.nobelprize.org/