Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 24.0¢
- Implied chance
- 24.0%
- Return if right
- 316.7%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 416.7 shares at 24.0¢ each.
YES wins: $416.67 back, a profit of $316.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $27.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $344.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $29.03.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Nigel Farage vows to deport foreign criminals from UK prisonsAl Jazeera · 6h ago
- The influencers taking on far-right leader Nigel FarageAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Arron Banks ‘hired private detective’ to look into journalist who investigated Reform UKThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Reform UK chair calls for probe into SBF-linked donation: ReportCointelegraph · 3d ago
- Reform UK plan to return asylum seekers using navy ‘dangerous in practice’Al Jazeera · 5d ago
- France slams hard-right Reform UK party's plan to use navy to stop Channel migrantsFrance 24 · 7d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.