Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 20.0¢
- Implied chance
- 20.0%
- Return if right
- 400.0%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.
YES wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $55.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $455.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $21.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- United Kingdom's Nigel Farage wins special election against trash can-themed opponent, Count BinfaceCBS News · 5h ago
- UK authorities continue probe into Nigel Farage’s crypto ‘gifts’ after by-election winCointelegraph · 6h ago
- What’s next for far-right Reform UK after Farage’s by-election win?Al Jazeera · 6h ago
- Chris Mason: Where does this unorthodox by-election victory leave Nigel Farage?BBC Politics · 8h ago
- Trump ally Nigel Farage beats Count Binface in special UK electionThe Hill · 10h ago
- Scrutiny over Farage’s finances has ‘hurt Reform UK support’Al Jazeera · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.