Prediction markets currently price this at 75%. A YES share costs 75.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 33.3% over 12d.

Spread: 49ers (-7.5)

Commanders vs. 49ers$2k liquidity$0 volumecloses 12d

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 75.0¢
Implied chance: 75.0%
Return if right: 33.3%
Spread cost: 51%

If you put in $100

You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.

YES wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $34.73 of that profit. Without it you would make $68.07.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 56.0¢
Implied chance: 56.0%
Return if right: 78.6%
Spread cost: 47%

If you put in $100

You get 178.6 shares at 56.0¢ each.

NO wins: $178.57 back, a profit of $78.57. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $68.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $146.91.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 8, 03:21 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Spread: 49ers (-7.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

In the upcoming NFL football game between Commanders and 49ers, scheduled for October 19 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Commanders". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Source: https://www.nfl.com/scores