Prediction markets currently price this at 76%. A YES share costs 76.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 31.6% over 10d.

Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

Broncos vs. 49ers$29 liquidity$0 volumecloses 10d

SportsNFL (All)Games

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 76.0¢
Implied chance: 76.0%
Return if right: 31.6%
Spread cost: 68%

If you put in $100

You get 131.6 shares at 76.0¢ each.

YES wins: $131.58 back, a profit of $31.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $66.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 75.0¢
Implied chance: 75.0%
Return if right: 33.3%
Spread cost: 67%

If you put in $100

You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.

NO wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $68.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 10:48 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Spread: 49ers (-3.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for October 4 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "49ers" if the 49ers win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Broncos". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Source: https://www.nfl.com/scores