Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.2¢
- Implied chance
- 8.2%
- Return if right
- 1119.5%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 1219.5 shares at 8.2¢ each.
YES wins: $1219.51 back, a profit of $1119.51. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $70.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $1190.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.7¢
- Implied chance
- 92.7%
- Return if right
- 7.9%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 107.9 shares at 92.7¢ each.
NO wins: $107.87 back, a profit of $7.87. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.53 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.40.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 04:11 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI launches new Astra model with warning that it may attempt to evade human monitoringCBS News · 26d ago
- Why the launch of OpenAI’s latest Astra model reignited the memory-chip tradeYahoo Finance · 28d ago
- Why the launch of OpenAI’s latest Astra model reignited the memory-chip tradeMarketWatch · 28d ago
- OpenAI confirms "critical" risks of Astra model, despite plans to release it soonCBS News · 1mo ago
- OpenAI’s Astra Model Can Hack With Minimal Human HelpYahoo Finance · 1mo ago
- OpenAI’s Astra model is on the way — and very good at breaking into computer systemsTechCrunch · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.