New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.2¢
- Implied chance
- 4.2%
- Return if right
- 2281.0%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 2381.0 shares at 4.2¢ each.
YES wins: $2380.95 back, a profit of $2280.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $216.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $2497.40.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.5¢
- Implied chance
- 96.5%
- Return if right
- 3.6%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 103.6 shares at 96.5¢ each.
NO wins: $103.63 back, a profit of $3.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Virginia General Assembly submitted a constitutional amendment to voters for a statewide referendum which, if passed, would allow new congressional districts, drawn in House Bill 29 (HB 29), to be used in the upcoming US House of Representatives midterm elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 are used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The release of official election materials from the State of Virginia, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, demonstrating that the revised congressional district map drawn in HB 29 definitively will or will not be used to define the congressional districts of Virginia in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections will be sufficient to resolve this market. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the State of Virginia and a consensus of credible reporting.