Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.0¢
- Implied chance
- 4.0%
- Return if right
- 2400.0%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $277.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $2677.78.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.8¢
- Implied chance
- 96.8%
- Return if right
- 3.3%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 103.3 shares at 96.8¢ each.
NO wins: $103.31 back, a profit of $3.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 23h ago
- Israel rejects Trump's 15-point plan for Gaza, Netanyahu saysBBC News · 1d ago
- Israel rejects Trump’s 15-point plan for Gaza, Netanyahu saysNBC News · 1d ago
- Middle East: Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump's Gaza planDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- Israel rejects Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, Netanyahu says. Follow DW for moreDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- Is Israel’s Netanyahu preparing to fight Iran alone?Al Jazeera · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.