Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.6¢
- Implied chance
- 0.6%
- Return if right
- 16566.7%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 16666.7 shares at 0.6¢ each.
YES wins: $16666.67 back, a profit of $16566.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1515.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $18081.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.5¢
- Implied chance
- 99.5%
- Return if right
- 0.5%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.
NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Benjamin Netanyahu attacks Israel’s enemies and allies in UN speechAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Netanyahu, Addressing U.N., Denounces Israel’s Critics as ‘Moral Cowards’The New York Times · 3h ago
- Netanyahu defends Israel in U.N. speech after several diplomats walk outCBS News · 5h ago
- Netanyahu calls Israel’s war in Gaza ‘opposite of genocide’ in UN speechThe Guardian · 6h ago
- Israel's Netanyahu addresses U.N. as many leaders walk outCBS News · 10h ago
- Watch live: Netanyahu to address UN amid US-Israel war in IranThe Hill · 11h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.