NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 53.0¢
- Implied chance
- 53.0%
- Return if right
- 88.7%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 188.7 shares at 53.0¢ each.
YES wins: $188.68 back, a profit of $88.68. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 54.0¢
- Implied chance
- 54.0%
- Return if right
- 85.2%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 185.2 shares at 54.0¢ each.
NO wins: $185.19 back, a profit of $85.19. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $12.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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- Russian strike near Kyiv kills 37, in one of the year's deadliest attacksNPR · 1d ago
- Royal Navy spent three days tracking Russian vessels in UK watersThe Guardian · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.