NATO article 5 before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.8¢
- Implied chance
- 6.8%
- Return if right
- 1370.6%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 1470.6 shares at 6.8¢ each.
YES wins: $1470.59 back, a profit of $1370.59. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $315.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $1685.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.6¢
- Implied chance
- 95.6%
- Return if right
- 4.6%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 104.6 shares at 95.6¢ each.
NO wins: $104.60 back, a profit of $4.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “NATO article 5 before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.