Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 29%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
YES wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.61.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 17.0¢
- Implied chance
- 17.0%
- Return if right
- 488.2%
- Spread cost
- 24%
If you put in $100
You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.
NO wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $152.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $640.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ukraine launches nearly 800 drones into Russia, targets MoscowCBS News · 6d ago
- Ukraine targets Moscow with drones as Russia threatens U.K. over supportCBS News · 7d ago
- Ukraine launches 637 drones toward Moscow, mayor says, with Wildberries facility hitABC News · 7d ago
- Ukraine aims a drone blitz at Moscow while Russian missiles kill 10 in a UkraineABC News · 7d ago
- Ukraine launches over 600 drones at Moscow regionFrance 24 · 7d ago
- Moscow threat of ‘consequences’ will not alter UK support for Ukraine, says BurnhamThe Guardian · 7d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The relevant airports are: - Sheremetyevo (SVO); - Domodedovo (DME); and - Vnukovo (VKO). A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify. The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.