Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 41.9¢
- Implied chance
- 41.9%
- Return if right
- 138.7%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 238.7 shares at 41.9¢ each.
YES wins: $238.66 back, a profit of $138.66. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $151.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 62.5¢
- Implied chance
- 62.5%
- Return if right
- 60.0%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 160.0 shares at 62.5¢ each.
NO wins: $160.00 back, a profit of $60.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $65.84.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Moscow, Kyiv assassins hunt weapons bosses as Ukraine war spills beyond the battlefieldFox News · 2d ago
- Syria says it reached deal with Moscow on future of Russian basesAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Russia cracks down on 9 crypto exchanges in Moscow CityCointelegraph · 4d ago
- Russian strikes kill six in Ukraine as Moscow intercepts hundreds of dronesAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- Russia deploys North Korean missile unit to Ukraine; Moscow-Pyongyang axis deepens: reportFox News · 6d ago
- Ukrainian drone strike on Russian warehouses in Moscow region kills 5CBS News · 7d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russian government or aviation authorities suspend departures and arrivals at all three of the following Moscow airports at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The relevant airports are: - Sheremetyevo (SVO); - Domodedovo (DME); and - Vnukovo (VKO). A qualifying suspension refers to official flight restrictions suspending both departures and arrivals at all three airports for any amount of time. Such suspensions may be issued as one singular order or separate notices, provided suspensions of arrivals and departures are concurrently in effect at all three airports between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Suspensions described as "temporary restrictions on arrivals and departures" at the relevant airports by Russian authorities will qualify. The primary resolution source will be official communications from the Russian government and Russian aviation authorities, including the Rosaviatsiya federal air transport agency; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.