Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs

Q: Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs

Prediction markets currently price this at 41%. A YES share costs 41.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 143.9% over 3d.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs$498 liquidity$11k volumecloses 3d

SportsGamesMLBbaseball

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 41.0¢
Implied chance: 41.0%
Return if right: 143.9%
Spread cost: 24%

If you put in $100

You get 243.9 shares at 41.0¢ each.

YES wins: $243.90 back, a profit of $143.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $45.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $189.86.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 72.0¢
Implied chance: 72.0%
Return if right: 38.9%
Spread cost: 26%

If you put in $100

You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.

NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $13.78 of that profit. Without it you would make $52.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 6, 10:00 PM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Dodgers ruin baseball with sixth straight loss, get swept for second consecutive series by Chicago CubsFox News · 5d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blu…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for June 21 at 2:20 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Toronto Blue Jays or Chicago Cubs. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Source: https://www.mlb.com/scores